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 Economic Reports in Nigeria

Economic Reports 
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Excess Crude Account.
Okonjo-Iweala says excess crude account depleting

Budget 2012. President Goodluck 
Jonathan sign N4.747 trillion 2012 budget into law on Friday April 2012.

2013 budget to be submitted by September

Nigeria to become largest producer of cocoa in 10-years

OFID Approves $46m for 5 African Countries

NIGERIA'S oil export in May is expected to increase significantly, as the county plans to load about 69.3 million barrels in 75 oil cargoes, according to the latest loading plans.

N3bn World Bank grant awaits commercial farmers
About N3.074 billion World Bank grant still remains for poultry, chicken and rice farmers in Lagos State to access. As a result, the state Commercial Agric Development Project (CADP) has intensified calls to farmers to leverage on this opportunity.

SAT-2,SATX to boost agric production
The agricultural sector is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of the satellite images from the NigeriaSat-2 and NigeriaSat-X.’

Nigeria requires additional 50, 000 base stations to meet QoS threshold.

The Minister of Communications Technology, says Nigerians will get more value from government Information Communications Technology spending.
FG committed to removing bottlenecks to infrastructure deployment 

NetServeAfrica Limited has announced a partnership with SAP Africa to deliver SAP® Business One to small and midsize businesses in Nigeria. Industry analysts say 80 percent of businesses in Nigeria are SMEs. But, most of them are not doing well in terms of how much they contribute to the economy from a value add perspective.

Etisalat sets aside N30.6 billion for Networkexpansion Determined to maintain high quality of service on its network, Etisalat Nigeria, fifth Global Systems for Mobile Communications in Nigeria says it has budgeted N30.6 billion for network expansion. Steve Evans, chief executive officer, Etisalat Nigeria made this disclosure at the official unveiling of Etisalat Master Brand Essence Campaign in Lagos.

FMBN launches N6b residential mortgage backed securities scheme

AN unprecedented lifeline could be underway soon for Nigeria’s embattled mortgage sector to drive homeownership, as the apex mortgage bank Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) plans to raise a multi billion naira Mortgage-Backed Bond (MBB)...

Borno earmarks N4.5b for projects 

IN a quest to overcome transportation problems and traffic congestion, Borno State government has begun construction of 13 kilometers of roads, dual-carriage way and two bridges in Maiduguri the capital of the state.

KEY INDICATORS IN NIGERIA

INDICATORS

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

GDP (N’trn) (at Current Prices)

26.59*

29.21

24.79

24.30

22.91

Real GDP Growth Rate (%)

7.40*

7.87

6.96

5.98

6.45

Oil Sector GDP Growth Rate (%)

(0.34)*

4.98

0.45

(4.5)

(5.1)

Non-Oil Sector GDP Growth Rate (%)

8.81*

8.43

8.32

9.5

9.8

Inflation Rate (Year-on-Year) %

10.30

11.80

12.00

15.1

6.6

Inflation Rate (12 Months Average) %

10.80

13.70

12.40

11.90

5.4

External Debt Stock (US$’bn)

5.67

4.58

3.95

3.72

3.397

Interest Paid on External Debt (US$’ mn)

351.62

354.42

89.15

76.60

66.00

Domestic Debt Stock (N’trn)

5.62

4.55

3.23

2.32

2.17

Interest Paid on Domestic Debt (N’bn)

223.67

671.89

271.35

306.20

185.37

External Reserves (US$’bn)

32.64

32.34

42.41

52.82

52.00

Credit to the Private Sector(N’bn)

12,213$

9,830

10,206

7,400

4,600

Net Domestic Credit(N’bn)

10,848.39$

8,708.55

7,903.79

5,391.8

2,212.67

Total Population (mn)

154.77F

150.00v

150.00

149.00

144.00

Unemployment Rate (%)

23.90

21.10

19.70

14.90

12.70

Banks Total Assets(N’bn)

15.74

18,374

15,851

17,031

10,431

Banks Non-Performing Loan (%)

18.00v

-

35.00

6.53

8.44

Total Banks Deposits (N’ bn)

10,990

10,443

8,680

8,274

5,072

Exchange Rate (N/US$1), Official

156.70

149.17

148.10

131.25

116.80

Appreciation (Depreciation), N/US$, (%)

(5.05)

(0.72)

(12.84)

(12.37)

8.03

Exchange Rate (N/US$1), Parallel

165.00

154.30

151.00

137.80

120.00

Time Deposit (Over 12months) %

7.12

3.53

12.72

12.71

7.92

Prime Lending Rate (%)

16.75

15.74

19.03

16.08

16.46

Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) (% )

12.00

6.25

6.00

9.75

9.50

NSE All Share Index Growth Rate (%) NGN

(16.31)

18.93

(33.78)

(45.77)

74.73

NSE All Share Index Growth Rate (%) US$

(21.36)

18.21

(46.62)

(58.14)

82.76

91-day T-Bill Rate (%)

9.72

3.68

3.66

5.00

8.50

182-day T-Bill Rate (%)

10.87

5.09

4.75

5.20

8.75

365-day T-Bill Rate (%)

11.85

6.32

9.19

7.65

7.93

Sources: NBS, CBN, NSE, NPC, DMO, FMDA, Budget Office, National Population Commission, FSDH Research Estimate: * September 2011, Feb, 2010, $October 2011


Economic Indicators

As at:

M2*
CPS*
INF
IBR 
MPR
91-day NTB 
DPR
PLR
Bonny Light
Ext Res

N13,151,545.9m
N12,762,544.0m
11.9
15.0400
12
14.19
7.96
17.11
US$123.3
US$36,048,849,505.6

Feb, 2012
Feb, 2012
Feb, 2012
4/4/2012
4/12/2012
3/29/2012
Feb, 2012
Feb, 2012
4/12/2012
4/12/2012

Inflation Rates (Per cent) for Year 2012  

Item Jan Feb
All Items (Year on Change) 12.60 11.90
All Items (12 Months Avg. Change) 10.90 11.00
Food (Year on Change)/1 13.10 12.90
Food (12 Months Avg. Change)/1 10.50 10.60
All Items Less Farm Produce 
(Year on Change)/2
12.70 13.50
All Items Less Farm Produce
(12 Months Avg. Change)/2
11.80 12.00
All Items Less Farm Produce and Energy (Year on Change)/3 14.30 12.70
All Items Less Farm Produce and Energy (12 Months Avg. Change)/3 11.40 11.20
Source: CBN

The Nigerian Economy 
In addition to the import substitution strategy of the FGN as outlined in the 2012 Budget Speech, three major events will shape economic development in 2012:

1. The deregulation of the downstream sector of the oil & gas Industry and the passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) into law.

2. The privatisation of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) in order to improve electricity generation, transmission and distribution in the country.

3. The security challenges in the country.

Except the FGN is able to provide palliative measures to cushion the effects of the short term increase in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), the deregulation policy will face strong resistance from the poor masses. It is generally viewed that past administrations did not show genuine commitment to fight corruption in the country to make ordinary Nigerians trust their leaders. FSDH Research had earlier recommended that government should come up with measurable framework on how the proceeds from the fuel subsidy removal would be invested to better the lives of average Nigerians.

Although hampered by the poor state of infrastructure in the country, the non-oil sector will continue to be the major driver of the GDP in Nigeria. We expect the trend to continue in 2012, with Agriculture, Wholesale & Retail Trade leading the growth. The huge opportunities that still exist in voice and data telecommunication industry will continue to attract investment into the sector.

The IMF released a robust growth rate of 6.6% for Nigeria in 2012. FSDH Research’s forecast for 2012 is in the range of 6.5% and 7.5%. We strongly assert that Nigeria can achieve double digit GDP growth rate if the country has a stable power supply, relevant transportation network and with the proposed deregulation of the downstream sector of oil and gas.

In the short term, the outlook for inflation will be influenced by fuel subsidy removal, supply shortages in the country due to low production, fiscal expansion, amongst others. However, the expected moderation in global commodities prices will lower the impact of imported inflation. Thus we expect inflation rate to hover around 14.5%-15.5% in mid-year, but drop to about 12.5%-13.5% to end the year.

With oil price around US$100/b, improved production in crude oil in the region of 2.4mb/d, expected drop in demand for foreign exchange, especially from minor oil marketers, and increase in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the power sector, we expect Nigeria’s foreign reserves to increase by about 6% to US$34.60bn.

We expect the current adjustment on the 2012 budget proposal to limit the budget deficit to 2.7% of GDP, which is within the acceptable limit of 3%.

The direction of public debt will be driven by what happens to the price of oil at the international market. If oil price remains at around US$100/b, there may not be need for the FGN to grow its debt portfolio excessively, but may grow it aggressively if oil price fall sharply. We expect oil price to remain high, thus we think public debt will only grow by about 10% in 2012 to about N7,162bn. The growth in debt will partly be driven by the current high interest rate that government is paying on its domestic debt. The debt to GDP is expected to be in the region of 17.77%.

With oil price around US$100/b, oil production at about 2.4mb/d and yields on fixed income securities in the local market, drop in foreign exchange demand from oil marketers, Nigeria should maintain a relatively stable exchange rate in 2012. The possibility of marginal depreciation cannot be ruled out. We expect the exchange rate in the region of N162/US$1 to end the year.
Source: www.fsdhsecurities.com

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